As the NHL season unfolds, the course of action that will be taken by Montreal general manager Kent Hughes is constantly evolving. Should the Canadiens be “in the mix” at the trade deadline, Hughes would have to decide between adding players for a potential playoff run, standing pat and hoping for the best or trying to maximize his return on players in demand by other contenders.
The first option seems to be off the table if the US Thanksgiving Day standings are an accurate predictor. The Canadiens currently have the 29th best points percentage in the league meaning that playoff hopes are extremely dim. That leaves the options of standing pat or trying to maximize any return in a trade.
Given that the team has four regulars and a handful of lesser lights eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer, standing pat does not seem to be an option either. It is hard to believe the Canadiens will re-sign all four of these potential UFAs given that they will be challenged for jobs by the team’s top prospects.
The conclusion is that Kent Hughes will be making some trades and these trades will involve veterans currently on the roster. In order to facilitate these trades he my have to include draft picks or prospects that he does not foresee making the NHL squad. The good news is that he has an abundance of both.
The timeline for the trades is almost impossible to predict. A lot depends on the needs faced by the other teams in the league. Unexpected injuries, sub-par performances by the team or an individual player and the need to fill an obvious hole all factor into when a team might come calling. The ability to take on salary is another consideration. A team may want to acquire a player but may have to wait until as close as to the deadline as possible in order to make the cap structure work.
From Montreal’s point of view, the longer they wait to make a trade the better idea they may have with regard to an existing prospect’s ability to take over the role of the traded player. We can also look at Kent Hughes’ trade history. His earliest in-season move of any significance was the Sean Monahan trade on February 2nd, 2024. He also traded traded Tyler Toffoli well before the trade deadline, moving him to the Calgary Flames on February 14th of 2022.
Taking all of these factors into account, it seems likely that any major trades could occur around the time of the Four Nations Cup that will be held from February 12-20 in Montreal and Boston. Undoubtedly every NHL general manager will be there, making communications among them an easier task.
The prime trade assets for the Canadiens are David Savard, Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia and Jake Evans. At least two or three from this group could be moved and maybe even all four. Others like Justin Barron and Jayden Struble could be included in trade packages if it means the assets coming back to the Canadiens fit needs that the Canadiens have. In the case of Barron and Struble, for example, Logan Mailloux and Adam Engstrom are waiting in the wings, but are they ready. It’s a judgment that Kent Hughes would have to make. It’s seem highly unlikely that David Reinbacher would challenge for an NHL job next season.
The next question would be what would the Canadiens want to target in a trade? They have enough draft picks over the next couple of years so that is not an immediate need. Neither are prospects who fall below the can’t miss category. That cupboard is also full. So, the return on any trade would have to be a player ready to step in and contribute, a high level prospect or a high draft pick.
And the Canadiens would have to be confident that they have a player in the organization who would be able to replace the traded player … or an acquisition could be made to replace the traded player. Keep in mind, an acquisition could include a free agent signing over the summer.
The retort is often that “player A” is only worth a second round pick or a third round pick. The comeback is that Hughes has a number of options to enhance the value of his trade package. There is one salary retention spot remaining, there is a plethora of young left defencemen in the organization, there are other prospects who may not have a future with the Canadiens and there is an abundance of draft picks.
Determining exactly what the needs are by position is still largely unknown. Kirby Dach is still struggling with his comeback and Patrik Laine hasn’t even begun his yet. Those are the two most obvious examples but almost three more months of NHL competition will sharpen that picture considerably. It will also give Hughes more information on the progress of Oliver Kapanen, Owen Beck, Joshua Roy, Filip Mesar, Logan Mailloux and Adam Engstrom. He will be heading into trade season armed with a lot more information than he has now and that increases his chances of success.
For all these reasons the timeline for trades seems like it would begin in earnest not much earlier than early February and perhaps even later than that. In the meantime, we can expect to see multiple trade rumours on social media sites like Bluesky. It could be a wild ride this year.
