With the first third of the season now complete, NHL teams have had time to evaluate their playoff chances and their rosters. Statistically speaking, the Montreal Canadiens are still “in the mix” and a strong run could enhance their chances of securing a playoff spot. Realistically speaking, they are still a long shot.
The Habs management team of Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes does not want to appear as if they are giving up on the season and trading veterans could certainly give that impression. But holding on to veterans, falling short of the playoffs and losing three or four players to free agency is also a risk.
The Canadiens are walking a bit of a tightrope here.
The Value of Leadership
The argument can be made that keeping these veterans on the roster for their leadership qualities is worth something, but how much? The Canadiens may only be able to hold on to these players until season end and could lose them for nothing. That means that the leadership provided by this group could conceivably end with the last game of the regular season.
Among the “young veterans” the defence has already gained a lot of experience and continues to do so. Forwards like Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and now Patrik Laine have also begun to establish themselves as leaders. In addition, players acquired in trades, some could possibly bring NHL experience with them; acquisitions don’t always have to be prospects and draft picks. Upon further review keeping the group of veterans who are pending free agents may not be critical and could actually be detrimental in the long run if the Canadiens lose them, getting nothing in return.
Template for a Trade
Using that framework, we can see the kind of trade the Canadiens might be open to making. It is intended only as an example of how Kent Hughes might proceed.
The first step would be to analyze what the Canadiens need. Christian Dvorak may be heading for the exits, so a left-shot center comes to mind, preferably one who has the potential to play in the top six. A physical right shot defenceman is another need, at least in the short term. Given that David Reinbacher likely won’t be ready for next season, a player with a year or two left on his contract would be ideal. Other than that, quality prospects and draft picks are always welcome.
The second step is to consider who the team might be open to trading, and the Canadiens have a host of veterans that could be available. That group includes David Savard, Jake Evans, Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia and others. The team also boasts a solid pipeline of prospects and a wealth of draft picks. Because NHL teams are limited to a roster of 23 players and an NHL contract limit of 50 players, it would not be a stretch to say that some of these assets are also available.
The Canadiens also have some cap room, particularly in the short term, that could be used as an incentive as could salary retention on one contract.
The final step is to identify a dance partner. Teams that are legitimate playoff or Stanley Cup contenders are obvious candidates. Among that group, teams that could benefit from what the Canadiens have to offer rise to the top. Those teams would have to be able to provide a return that would interest Montreal, shortening the list even more.
Enter the Vancouver Canucks. The discussion on Sportsnet 650 this morning revolved around the need for the Canucks to add a right shot defenceman and a right shot center capable of playing in the bottom six. The names of Savard and Evans immediately come to mind.
Potential Trade Pieces
It’s a situation worth examining, but the salary cap immediately becomes an issue. The Canucks only have about $2.5 million in current cap space while Savard’s contract is for $3.5 million and Evans’ is for $1.7 million. Montreal could help solve that problem by accepting Vincent Desharnais and his $2.0 million contract as part of the return. He is at best a bottom pairing defenceman and maybe more suited to the AHL but his contract is only for one more season and the Canadiens could probably live with it for that long. Montreal would be doing Vancouver a favour here as Desharnais simply hasn’t worked out for them.
If Desharnais was part of the trade, it could still leave the Canucks relatively tight to the cap. Montreal could retain salary on Savard, but I suspect they would be loathe to do that, preferring to use salary retention in a trade that involved
Dvorak or Armia.
One option would be to include 29-year-old Danton Heinen in the deal, swapping his $2.25 million contract for that of 26-year-old Michael Pezzetta and his $812.5k contract. Apparently the Canucks have been deeply disappointed in Heinen’s play and while has been a more productive player than Pezzetta, it does remove about $1.4 million of cap liability for them; cap space that could be used at the deadline if the opportunity arose.
The inclusion of Heinen would be a long shot.
The key to this hypothetical trade, however, would be Aatu Raty, a 6-2 190 left hand center who was acquired from the Islanders in the Bo Horvat trade. At one point, Raty was considered to be among the top three picks available in the 2021 entry draft. His stock fell going into the draft as his skating was considered a weakness and the Islanders eventually selected him in the second round at 52nd overall.
In 134 AHL games spread over four seasons, Raty has amassed 30 goals and 56 assists along with 44 minutes in penalties. While those aren’t earth shattering numbers they aren’t bad for a young player who has bounced between organizations and leagues over the last four seasons.
Given that he was a key piece in the Horvat trade, Raty is an even longer shot that Heinen to be included in a trade. It’s hard to see the Canucks giving up on him.
Trade Probabilities
Multi-player trades typically take place in the off-season, making the likelihood of anything close to this trade between these two teams this season close to zero. It might be too many assets to be included in one trade, it could be that one team would have to include additional assets or it might be the wrong assets altogether. It could also possibly be the kind of trade Kent Hughes is willing to make. But would Vancouver?
This hypothetical trade was put forward only to create some discussion around what factors could be considered when the Canadiens are in trade negotiations. As the fortunes of NHL teams rise and fall in the coming weeks, look for more trade speculation.
