The landscape of the NHL has undergone significant transformations since its inception, especially regarding the odds of players winning the Stanley Cup or individual awards. As the league expanded from its Original Six to the modern-day 32 teams, the chances of individual and team success have shifted dramatically.
Early NHL: The Original Six Era (1942-1967)
During the Original Six era, the NHL consisted of six teams: the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings, Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, and New York Rangers. Each franchise had a 1 in 6 (16.67%) chance of winning the Stanley Cup annually. For the Canadiens, this was a golden age, with legends like Maurice “Rocket” Richard, Doug Harvey, and Jean Béliveau leading the team to 10 championships during this period. Individual awards were also more accessible, with stars like Béliveau winning the Hart Trophy and Harvey dominating the Norris Trophy. Similarly, with a limited player pool, the odds of winning individual awards like the Hart Trophy (MVP), Norris Trophy (best defenseman), or Selke Trophy (best defensive forward) were relatively high.
NHL Expansion: 12 Teams (1967-1970)
The 1967 NHL expansion doubled the league’s size to 12 teams, marking the end of the Original Six era and reducing a team’s Stanley Cup odds to 1 in 12 (8.33%). The Canadiens adapted seamlessly, winning two Stanley Cups in this brief period. However, the larger player pool and increased competition began to shift the dynamic, making individual awards harder to claim.
1970s and 1980s: the 21-Team League
By 1979, the NHL had grown to 21 teams, reducing Stanley Cup odds to 1 in 21 (4.76%). For the Canadiens, the 1970s were another decade of dominance, with stars like Guy Lafleur and Larry Robinson driving the team to six Stanley Cups. Yet, as the league expanded, other teams gained ground, and competition for trophies became fiercer. The arrival of European players and increased parity meant even the Canadiens’ sustained excellence couldn’t guarantee dominance in the new landscape. Individual awards became even more challenging to attain, as the number of players grew, making the competition stiffer.
Modern NHL: 32 Teams (2021-Present)
Since the league’s expansion to 32 teams, the odds of winning the Stanley Cup have plummeted to 1 in 32 (3.13%), making success elusive even for storied franchises like the Canadiens. For individual players, the global talent pool has created unprecedented competition for awards, with stars from around the world vying for recognition.
In this context, elite players can now have long, distinguished careers without ever winning the Stanley Cup or major awards, a stark contrast to the days when Canadiens legends routinely dominated the NHL’s accolades.
Changing Perceptions: Re-Evaluating Success
With these shifts, it is increasingly unfair to judge a player’s career based solely on the number of Stanley Cups or individual awards they have won. In earlier eras, the odds were significantly more favourable, and the number of elite players was smaller, making it easier for top players to accumulate accolades.
This change in landscape has led to debates about the Hall of Fame worthiness of modern players who have never won a Stanley Cup or major individual awards. For example, some fans and media members have questioned whether Shea Weber, despite his stellar career, deserves to be inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame because “he’s never won a Norris Trophy or Stanley Cup.” Similarly, many argue that Carey Price, one of the most dominant goaltenders of his generation, should not be inducted due to his lack of a Stanley Cup ring. These arguments highlight the need to reassess how success is measured in the current NHL landscape.
Comparison of Odds Across Eras:
- Original Six (1942-1967): 1 in 6 chance (16.67%) of winning the Stanley Cup.
- 12 Teams (1967-1970): 1 in 12 chance (8.33%).
- 21 Teams (1979-1991): 1 in 21 chance (4.76%).
- 32 Teams (2021-Present): 1 in 32 chance (3.13%).
Conclusion: A New Perspective
The NHL’s expansion has created a more balanced and competitive league but has also diminished the odds of any one player or team achieving traditional measures of success. Fans and media must recognize these changes and adopt a more nuanced view of what constitutes a Hall of Fame career. A player’s contributions to the game, consistency, leadership, and impact on their teams should be considered alongside, or even above, the traditional measures of Stanley Cups and individual awards. In an era where the odds are stacked against even the most talented, true greatness may not always come with a trophy in hand.
For players like Shea Weber and Carey Price, their legacy should be viewed through the lens of their sustained excellence, leadership, and influence on the game, rather than a checklist of awards and championships. As the NHL continues to grow, these factors will only become more relevant in assessing the true worth of a player’s career.
It is not about “lowering our standards”, but more about having the mental mindset to understand that the landscape has changed over the years.
