Red Hot to Ice Cold: The Canadiens’ Shocking Downturn

What happened to the Canadiens?

We see this question a lot on social media, and it’s likely one that even the Habs’ brass is asking themselves.

On January 22nd, just 13 days ago, the Montreal Canadiens were right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. They were tied with the Ottawa Senators for the last Wild Card spot, only one point behind the Columbus Blue Jackets for the first Wild Card, and one point back of the Tampa Bay Lightning for third in the Atlantic Division.

Today, they find themselves six points out of a Wild Card spot, with five teams ahead of them to pass. In that stretch, the Canadiens have posted a dismal 0-4-1 record, dead last in the NHL with a .100 points percentage, and have been outscored 19-8.

A Rapid Decline

Recent losses to:

• Detroit Red Wings
• New Jersey Devils
• Winnipeg Jets
• Minnesota Wild
• Anaheim Ducks

A month ago, Montreal was surging. Now, they look like a team destined for another lost season.

A Tale of Two Teams

The numbers tell a clear story—Montreal has gone from one of the hottest teams in the NHL to the absolute coldest in the span of two weeks. But how did this happen?

Coaching Decisions Raising Questions

The most often seen reason to try justifying this fall is fatigue, due to a tough schedule. Could at least some of Montreal’s struggles have been self-inflicted, particularly in lineup management.

Michael Pezzetta was a healthy scratch for 28 consecutive games before finally drawing back in due to Emil Heineman’s injury. Rust was inevitable, making it difficult to regain game shape. Pezzetta’s play has been plagued by positioning errors, puck mishandles, and undisciplined penalties—issues stemming from lack of game action more than lack of effort.

Since Heineman’s injury on January 11th, the coaching staff’s handling of fourth-line minutes has been questionable at best:

Instead of regularly rolling four lines, Martin St-Louis and the coaching staff have leaned into playing with 11 forwards, showing little trust in anyone to take Heineman’s spot. This has limited fourth-line minutes, resulting in increased fatigue among the top-nine forwards who are forced to double shift. Fatigue and players sometimes playing on their line, sometimes on other lines, is breaking any potential chemistry. 

Although Jake Evans’ ice time has remained steady since Heineman’s injury, Joel Armia’s even-strength minutes have decreased by about a minute per game. This decline isn’t a reflection of Armia’s performance—he’s been playing at a high level. Rather, it highlights the coaching staff’s reduced reliance on the fourth line compared to just a month ago.

Similarly, defenseman Jayden Struble was made a healthy scratch for long stretches before being sent to Laval on a conditioning stint. He was recalled earlier than expected only due to Kaiden Guhle’s injury, raising questions about whether the Canadiens are handling their young players and issuing proper rest optimally.

Depth Issues or Inexperience Behind the Bench?

Is the team’s recent downturn a symptom of a lack of depth? Or is it a reflection of a young coaching staff still learning on the fly? The truth may lie somewhere in between.

With 30 games remaining, Montreal still has time to right the ship, but the next three games before the 4-Nations Face Off break could determine their approach to the trade deadline. More importantly, with only 10 games left before the March 7th NHL Trade Deadline, the Habs are once again trending toward being sellers—for the fourth consecutive year.

For a team that seemed poised to make a statement, the past two weeks have been a harsh reality check. The Canadiens now face a difficult question: Who stays to be part of the solution, and who goes?