Things are clearing up in the battle for 23 roster spots in Montreal.
The Canadiens testing Oliver Kapanen on the wing in last night’s 4-3 exhibition loss to Ottawa was a sign that they want to give him a serious look in the top nine and perhaps even the second line. Kapanen lined up beside Christian Dvorak and Joshua Roy, and coach Marty St. Louis allowed Kapanen to show his versatility. Even though he was technically a winger, Kapanen took ten faceoffs (winning five), many of them on special teams.
He played 3:17 on the penalty kill, almost twice as much as Dvorak. He was on the ice for two power-play goals against, but he was not alone. All four goals scored against Montreal were on the power play, and it was the difference in the game. Kapanen will need to work on covering the point man closer on the pk and blocking the shooting lane – he didn’t cover Jake Sanderson adequately on the game-winning goal, but overall, Kapanen is already solid away from the puck, and it’s evident that St. Louis has seen that throughout camp as he was a regular on the penalty kill last night.
Kapanen’s late goal may have secured him a roster spot to open the season. It’s apparent that the club would like to have multiple second-line options for replacing Patrik Laine, given that the frontrunner for that spot, Joshua Roy, is only in his second pro season and has been inconsistent in exhibition play. Kapanen holds more promise offensively right now than Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson, and Joel Armia. What you see is what you get from those three. Averaging a point-per-game and showing solid defensive skills through three exhibition games tells the coaching staff that Kapanen won’t hurt the club if he starts the season in a top-nine role, be it lining up beside Dach on the second line or Dvorak on the third unit.
One of the reasons why Kapanen may ultimately be given a second-line audition is because he can help that line win faceoffs. Dach is a 35 percent faceoff man for his career, and last night, he won four of his 13 draws (31 percent). He was beaten cleanly on several of them, and he doesn’t appear to be improving that part of his game. Having another player on his line to take faceoffs wouldn’t be a bad thing, as Alex Newhook, so far in the NHL, has only won 41 percent of his draws. It will be interesting to see who starts the season with Dach and Newhook.
The Canadiens have one tough decision to make at forward, as it looks like Barre-Boulet has won a spot. He has been one of the better Montreal forwards in the exhibition games. He’s consistently created offence, and that might earn him NHL employment as one of the extra forwards. He had another excellent opportunity to score last night and chose to pass it instead, and that was the wrong decision. It’s no surprise that in the past three AHL seasons, he has assisted on 78 more goals than he has scored. He is a smart playmaker, however, and he won’t hurt the club as a spare forward who can fill in if there are injuries. Barre-Boulet
Emil Heineman made a great power move in the first period on Jake Sanderson, who is almost impossible to beat.
Aside from a couple of solid defensive plays in addition to that rush, Heinrman wasn’t overly noticeable in the game. The numbers say he likely starts the season in Laval as he doesn’t have to clear waivers.. He needs to show offensive consistency at the AHL level before he gets a full-time NHL shot, but he’s not far away. He won’t hurt the club in a bottom-line role if there are a couple of injuries and gets called up.
The Canadiens won’t keep Roy or Emil Heineman as a spare forward as they are both in the development stage, so the final forward roster spot is likely to come down to Heineman or Kapanen. Keeping Kapanen means both are in Montreal developing with Montreal’s coaches and systems…with Heineman being in Laval as it’s either Montreal or Sweden for Kapanen.
Last night was Roy’s best preseason game by far. He needed it. He looked a lot more comfortable with the puck and picked up two assists. He could have had more. Roy’s hockey IQ is much needed on the Canadiens, especially on a second power-play unit that lost a crucial component in Laine this week.
I expect the Canadiens to start the season with 14 forwards, seven defencemen, and two goalies, with these being the 14 forwards:
Slaf
Suzuki
Caufield
Dach
Newhook
Roy
Kapanen
Dvorak
Anderson
Armia
Evans
Gallagher
Pezzetta
Barre-Boulet
Officials appear to be telling the Habs this preseason that they are on their own when it comes to exacting fair punishment for transgressions against their players. Jayden Struble took note and leveled Ridly Grieg with a hard but clean hit as payback for Grieg’s late hit on Kirby Dach, which was only penalized with a minor.
Struble is highly underrated, and he has more than earned a regular spot in the lineup. So steady, so poised…so hard to beat. Struble has made some excellent outlet passes all preseason. He keeps improving as a pro. Just like last season when he was called up…he is outplaying Arber Xhekaj at the moment.
The club has some tough decisions to make on the left side, but an easy one is having Struble in the lineup on opening night, perhaps even in a top-four role. Is Kaiden Guhle better than Struble right now, especially after missing most of training camp after an appendectomy? It’s debatable. They are similar players in a lot of respects – solid defenders with great mobility who play with a physical edge and move pucks. It can be argued that Struble makes fewer mistakes, and for that reason, it wouldn’t be outlandish to start him on a higher pairing and see how he fares. If he can handle it – the club will know that he’s capable of playing a top-four role at a moment’s notice.
Logan Mailloux has been rock solid defensively in training camp, and that will be encouraging to Canadiens’management as that’s been the part of his game that most needed improvement. While he has done nothing to hurt his chances of making the club, he will likely be caught in a number’s game and find himself in Laval to start the season. Justin Barron has to clear waivers, and he’s a prime candidate to be snapped up given that he’s a young former first-round pick, so Mailloux will be the odd man out to start the season.
Having five left defenceman in the lineup on opening night is not an ideal scenario but if Guhle is ready to go, it may be a reality. Barron has been the least effective defenceman, and after the shitshow that we witnessed in the last meeting with the Leafs, the coaches may want Arber Xhekaj in the lineup to give the Canadiens a fighter to help keep the likes of Ryan Reaves in check, especially if Michael Pezzetta is a healthy scratch.
On the other hand, Xhekaj is a likely target after he beat up Cedric Pare with his gloves on last Saturday, and St. Louis may decide that having him out of the lineup may calm the waters and result in teams sticking to hockey. I would lean toward Xhekaj playing. He stuck up for his fallen teammate Laine, and Marty may choose to reward that loyalty rather than penalize it—scratching Xhekaj may send the wrong message. The last thing St. Louis wants is for his team to be intimidated.
The one sure thing about this point is that Struble beat out Xhekaj and Barron. I don’t expect to see Struble sitting in the stands unless he starts to struggle. So far in his pro career, we have seen little indication that that’s about to happen.
Here are the seven defencemen likely to start the season on the roster:
Matheson Guhle
Hutson Savard
Struble Xhekaj
Barron
There is less drama in goal. Cayden Primeau and Samuel Montembeault will be the goaltenders on opening night, and even though he has had an outstanding camp, Jakub Dobes will be assigned to Laval this week.
