The buzz surrounding Jake Evans is astonishing. As a third- or fourth-line player, it’s remarkable how much attention he draws from journalists, bloggers, podcasters, and fans alike. Even I find myself writing my third article on the subject.
Why is there so much passion around a bottom-six forward?
For starters, Evans is on the brink of unrestricted free agency (UFA) for the first time in his career. This marks his best—and perhaps only—opportunity to “cash in.” Players in his role often have shorter careers, making free agency a rare chance to secure financial stability and long-term security.
Additionally, the Canadiens are finally showing signs of turning the corner, and Evans has been a significant contributor to their recent success. Fans notice this, just as they notice Kirby Dach’s ongoing struggles at center (despite his recent improvement) and Alex Newhook’s preference for playing on the wing. They also recognize that Evans has outperformed Christian Dvorak in the middle.
The Perfect Storm
However, Evans’ value isn’t without red flags. Recent analysis highlights some significant concerns about his potential contract. In comparisons with centers across the NHL and, more recently, with his former teammate Phillip Danault—before Danault signed with the L.A. Kings—it becomes clear that Evans’ open-market value could exceed expectations.
While speculation has centered on Evans earning $3 million annually on a three- to four-year deal, a more likely scenario sees him commanding upwards of $4 million per season on a five-year deal.
The Red Flags
- Offensive Production: Evans, turning 29 in a few weeks, has never produced at his current pace. He’s on track for 21 goals and 48 points, yet his career average over 82 games before this season was just 8 goals and 28 points.
- Shooting Percentage: His current shooting percentage is an unsustainable 28.6%, compared to a career average of 8.2%. For context, Cole Caufield, the team’s leading goal scorer, boasts a shooting percentage of 18.8%.
The Insider Take
While TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie recently suggested an agreement between the Canadiens and Evans is just a matter of time, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun offered a more sobering perspective. According to LeBrun, if Evans wants to hit a financial home run with his next contract, it won’t be with Montreal. GM Kent Hughes reportedly has a firm number in mind for a player of Evans’ role and won’t exceed it—a figure significantly below what Evans could fetch on the open market.
According to #NHL Insider Pierre LeBrun, if Jake Evans wants to hit a homerun with his next contract, it won't be with the #Habs. LeBrun says that Kent Hughes has a number in mind that is much lower than what the top offers will be in July for the #Canadiens center. #GoHabsGo
— JD Lagrange (@jdlagrange.bsky.social) 2025-01-09T12:28:17.141Z
As previously noted, players like Evans have limited time in the league and often just one opportunity to secure a significant contract. While top players might leave money on the table, role players typically seize the chance to cash in when it arises. This doesn’t guarantee Evans’ departure, but it does provide valuable context when considering whether he will sign an extension before July 1.
A First-Round Pick in Play?
Marco D’Amico recently reported that Evans is generating strong interest across the NHL from teams gearing up for a playoff run. According to his sources, Evans could fetch a first-round pick in return.
The Canadiens already own two first-round picks in the upcoming draft, theirs and Calgary’s. Adding another would give Montreal three first-rounders, plus two second-round and three third-round picks. This bounty could enable Hughes to trade up in the draft or most likely package picks to acquire young, NHL-ready talent to fill key gaps, accelerating the rebuild and positioning the Canadiens for playoff contention as soon as next season.
The Big Picture
There’s no clear-cut solution for Hughes and the Canadiens. Overpaying for a bottom-six forward like Evans doesn’t align with the organization’s long-term strategy under Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes. With prospects like Owen Beck and Oliver Kapanen nearing NHL readiness and options available in free agency, Evans seems more likely to move on than to stay in Montreal.
Still, in the unpredictable world of hockey, nothing is certain. Betting on Evans’ future—one way or the other—might not be the safest wager.
