The Numbers Behind The Habs’ Surge

Heading into the 2024-25 season, the Montreal Canadiens’ management made it clear: they wanted to be “in the mix.” Now, with 65 games played, they sit just one point out of a playoff spot. The numbers paint a picture of a team that has taken a tangible step forward, though not without areas of concern. Let’s break down where they’ve improved—and where they still need work.

Offensive Progress: More Goals, Better Power Play

One of the most encouraging signs of the Canadiens’ evolution is their offensive output. With 192 goals scored, they’ve already surpassed last year’s total at this point by 13 goals, increasing their goals per game from 2.75 to 2.95. That might not seem like a massive leap, but in a league where every goal matters, it’s a sign of a more efficient attack.

A major factor? The power play. A 2.7% jump (from 19.0% to 21.7%) has helped Montreal capitalize on more opportunities, which has been crucial in tight games. While still not among the league’s elite, the improvement has been significant enough to make a difference in the standings.

Defensive Tightening: Goals Against Trending Down

The Canadiens have also made strides defensively. They’ve reduced their goals against per game from 3.43 to 3.28, shaving off 10 goals overall. While they remain a team that gives up more than they score, the trend is encouraging.

A major reason for this improvement? A vastly improved penalty kill, which has jumped from 75.6% to 81.3%. That’s a 5.7% increase, demonstrating better structure and execution when down a man. Additionally, they’re taking fewer penalties overall (672 penalty minutes last year to 593 this year), showing more discipline—another key to staying competitive in close games.

Goaltending & Defensive Support: Fewer Shots Allowed

A major factor behind Montreal’s defensive gains is their ability to limit opponents’ chances. They’re giving up 4.2 fewer shots per game (33.3 to 29.1), a significant improvement that eases the workload on their goaltenders. However, their own offensive shot totals have dipped (28.3 to 26.0 per game), which could indicate a shift toward a more defensive system or a lack of offensive zone time.

Physical Play & Discipline: A Double-Edged Sword?

One of the most eye-catching changes is the increase in physical play. The Canadiens have racked up 169 more hits than at this point last season (1,594 vs. 1,425). While this speaks to their commitment to being harder to play against, the trade-off has been a rise in giveaways—a staggering 314 more than last year (907 vs. 593). This suggests that while they’re playing with more energy and physicality, they’re also making riskier plays that lead to turnovers.

Faceoffs & Takeaways: Areas of Concern

Montreal’s faceoff percentage has dipped slightly (52.0% to 50.9%), and their takeaways have dropped (364 to 319), indicating they’re not forcing as many turnovers as before. With possession being critical in today’s NHL, this is an area that could be a deciding factor down the stretch.

The Road Ahead

Overall, the Canadiens have taken a step forward. Their improvements in goal scoring, special teams, and defensive responsibility have made them a legitimate threat for a playoff spot. However, their declining shot generation, increased giveaways, and slight regression in faceoffs and takeaways suggest they still have room to grow.

As the season winds down, the challenge will be sustaining these positive trends while tightening up their weaknesses. If they can strike the right balance, Montreal might not just be “in the mix”—they could be punching their ticket to the postseason.