The main concern with Montreal’s forward group going into training camp last season was a lack of top-six depth.
The Canadiens couldn’t afford to lose a top-four forward for any extended period because there were not enough proven players who could fill the void in the top six.
Kirby Dach’s injury in the second regular-season game doomed the club’s slim playoff hopes. Alex Newhook and Juraj Slafkovsky had not played top-six roles in their young careers, and could not be expected to be effective second-line players at the NHL level in the first half of last season.
The club was left having to plug Josh Anderson into a second-line role despite struggling to score, and Alex Newhook was thrust into a second-line role that he was not ready to fulfill, especially with the lack of offensive support from his linemates with he exception of Monahan in the first half of the season when he was healthy.
Things have changed.
If you look back at Montreal’s lineup ten games into last season, the Canadiens essentially have four ”new” top-six forwards.
Newhook started realizing his full potential last season as a 16th overall pick in his early 20s. He had 12 goals and 27 points in his final 39 games. That is a 25-goal and 57-point pace over 82 games. Those are more than adequate second-line numbers.
Slafkovsky blossomed in his sophomore season after being moved to the Suzuki line. In his last 51 games, Slaf scored 18 goals and 26 assists. That is an 82-game pace of 29 goals and 42 assists. Those would be solid numbers this season for a big, physical first-line winger, and who knows, maybe he will better those totals as he is far from reaching his full potential at 20 years of age.
Kirby Dach is the biggest wildcard in the top six, returning from a serious knee injury. The former third-overall pick has 40 points in his 60 games with his new club so far. A 55-point pace is solid for a 6-4 second-line center that brings an all-around game but the expectation is that at 23, Dach can provide even more, especially if he lines up with Laine and the two find chemistry.
Laine is a career 35-goal scorer, and very few of those games were played with a center harbouring Dach’s potential. Mark Scheifele centered him occasionally in Winnipeg, and Laine put up the best goal stats of his career. If those two click and Dach hits his upside, expect point totals between 60 and 80 for Laine, Dach, and Newhook presuming they are healthy and play together.
That’s a big presumption. Dach has dealt with numerous injuries in the past six years, and both Laine and Newhook missed large chunks of last season.
The main difference with this group is that there is enough top-six depth to compensate for an injury or two in the top six. Last year, it was catastrophic.
If Dach gets banged up again, Newhook can slide into the second-line center slot and Joshua Roy, Joel Armia, or Brendan Gallagher can be bumped up. Both Armia and Gallagher scored at better than a 20-goal pace in the second half of last year. If they play with any two of Dach, Laine, and Newhook, they should be able to contribute decent numbers. Even Josh Anderson is capable of helping out a second line temporarily if he bounces back from an off-year.
An injury to Caufield or Slafkovsky, and Laine can easily slide into a first-line spot. He may even end up on the top line anyway by the end of training camp. Suzuki hasn’t missed a game in the past four seasons so he’s extremely durable but if he gets injured, Dach can center the top line and Newhook takes over as the second-line center.
If you exclude Monahan, who was dealt last February, Montreal’s bottom nine forwards scored the second-fewest goals in the league. Only San Jose had fewer. Barring rampant injury woes, that will not be the case this season, and it’s one of the many reasons we can expect a significant improvement from the 76 points the club managed last season.
