With 25 games left in the Montreal Canadiens’ season and the playoffs all but out of reach for a fourth straight year, the focus for both fans and players shifts toward individual milestones, development, and securing roles for next season.
One player firmly in that spotlight is Cole Caufield. Leading the team with 27 goals, the elusive 40-goal plateau is within reach—but can he get there?
The Basic Math
If we want to keep it simple, we can do it. Caufield is 13 goals away from the 40-goals plateau. And he has 25 games to do it.
A simple way to project Caufield’s chances is by looking at his current scoring rate. With 27 goals in 57 games, he’s averaging 0.47 goals per game. If that pace continues over the final 25 games, he would score roughly 12 more goals, putting him at 39 for the season. Close—but not quite 40.
A Deeper Dive: Performance vs. Remaining Opponents
Rather than just extrapolating his season-long pace, let’s take a more detailed approach. How has Caufield performed against the teams he’ll be facing down the stretch?
According to Tankathon, the Canadiens have the second easiest schedule for the remainder of this season. That’s encouraging news for Caufield’s chances, but let’s dig deeper by looking at his goal production against these specific opponents:
| TEAM | GAMES REMAINING | CAREER GOALS |
| Edmonton | 1 | 3 in 7 GP |
| Toronto | 1 | 10 in 15 GP |
| Carolina | 3 | 0 in 6 GP |
| Florida | 3 | 6 in 11 GP |
| Colorado | 1 | 2 in 5 GP |
| San Jose | 1 | 2 in 6 GP |
| Chicago | 1 | 2 in 6 GP |
| Nashville | 1 | 3 in 7 GP |
| Seattle | 1 | 2 in 7 GP |
| Buffalo | 1 | 4 in 12 GP |
| Philadelphia | 2 | 5 in 8 GP |
| Calgary | 1 | 2 in 7 GP |
| Vancouver | 1 | 3 in 7 GP |
| Ottawa | 2 | 10 in 12 GP |
| NY Islanders | 1 | 5 in 6 GP |
| St. Louis | 1 | 6 in 7 GP |
| Boston | 1 | 4 in 9 GP |
| Detroit | 1 | 2 in 10 GP |
Based on his historical scoring rate against these teams, Caufield projects to score 10 to 11 more goals the rest of the way. That would leave him at 37 or 38 goals—just shy of 40.
The Verdict
Both methods—basic extrapolation and opponent-based projections—suggest Caufield will finish just short of 40 goals. But it’s not out of the question. A hot streak at the right time, a few fortunate bounces, or strong performances against teams he has historically feasted on (Ottawa, Toronto, St. Louis) could push him over the edge.
However, goal scorers are notorious for streaky production. If Caufield avoids a cold spell and takes advantage of a favourable schedule, 40 goals remains a realistic target.
If he does fall short, it would be easy to think that losing his favourite spot on the power play at the left faceoffs’ circle would be a factor. Digging deeper into it though, he has 8 power play goals in 57 games this season, to his 9 (in 82 games) last year. It might be a factor, but not as determinant as we would think. Either way, it’ll be a race to watch down the stretch.
