With US Thanksgiving approaching, it is becoming easier to identify which teams are in contention for a playoff spot and which teams are not. A quick glance at the NHL standings might lead one to believe that the Montreal Canadiens and Pittsburgh Penguins are in similar situations; both are a long way in back in the race for post season play.
The Penguins rank last in points percentage and have the worst goal differential in their conference. The Canadiens rank as the second worst and third worst in the conference in those two categories. But that is where the similarity ends – by all other measures the differences are stark. The Canadiens have more than a glimmer of hope for the future while the Penguins look to be going in the wrong direction.
We can begin by looking at the roster ages where Montreal is the second youngest team in the league and Pittsburgh is the second oldest. The age difference is even more striking when you consider the overall contract status of each team. Pittsburgh has a six players who are 32 years old or older and who are signed to long term contracts with trade protection – and for the most part these are the key players on the team. Montreal has one player in that category, Brendan Gallagher and while David Savard is 34 years old, he is on an expiring contract and does not have any trade protection.
Not to take anything away from Gallagher and Savard, but they are less important to the Canadiens than the aging veterans on the Penguins like Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson. There is also a good chance Savard could be moved and replaced by someone younger before year end, making the Canadiens even younger. On the other hand, the trade protection clauses in the Pittsburgh contracts somewhat handcuff GM Kyle Dubas to the contracts of this aging group.
Pittsburgh are on old team that is likely to get even older.
We can take a deeper dive into the comparison by looking at the ranking of each team’s prospect pool. There are a variety of sites that rank these prospect pools and for the most part, most of them come up with relatively similar evaluations. Yardbarker ranks the Canadiens as having the second best prospect pool with the Penguins at 24th overall.
Between having a younger roster and a higher quality prospect pool the near and medium term future looks far brighter for the Canadiens than the Penguins.
The final comparison that we can make is the potential that lies in the upcoming drafts. Montreal has 12 picks in the 2025 draft and another 9 in the 2026 draft while Pittsburgh has 10 picks and 9 picks respectively in those two drafts. Without looking further that may seem relatively even but the Montreal’s picks are higher value because more of them land in the earlier rounds.
Using their Perri Pick Value tool, Puckpedia ranks the value of Montreal’s picks at 119.81 for 2025 and 84.43 for 2026. They rank the value of Pittsburgh’s picks at 40.45 and 48.36 for the same two drafts. Those numbers imply that the difference in strength between the two prospect pools will continue to widen… all else being equal.
The way in which GM Kent Hughes has been able to acquire draft picks bodes well for the longer term future of the Canadiens.
The point of this comparison is not to try to discredit Pittsburgh, it is to illustrate that not everything should be taken at face value. I chose the Penguins because their record is similar to that of the Canadiens. But current standings are simply a snapshot of where a team is today and give us little clues about what the trajectory of their performance might look like in the future. Other factors should be considered.
For the Montreal Canadiens and their beleaguered fans, the light at the end of the tunnel is becoming a bit brighter.
