Betting on Evans: Balancing Risk and Reward

The volume of discussion surrounding Montreal Canadiens center Jake Evans has been, to put it mildly, surprising. Social media and fan forums have been abuzz with debates about his future, creating a near-obsession with a player typically seen as a third- or fourth-line center. For a team as storied as the Canadiens, the fixation on Evans feels disproportionate. So, why all the fuss?

Much of the “Evans phenomenon” can be traced to the Canadiens’ current challenges down the middle. With Kirby Dach struggling to find his form this season and Christian Dvorak, like Evans, nearing unrestricted free agency, questions about the team’s depth at center have intensified. Add in Evans’ career year offensively, and the perfect storm of speculation has engulfed Montreal.

A Contract Debate Divided

Supporters of re-signing Evans have flooded social media with rather low-ball speculative figures about his next contract’s salary and term. While they often label him as a “fourth-line center” as justification, they paradoxically argue that he’s too valuable to let go—a sentiment that seems to acknowledge his progression beyond that role. The reality is that this season, Evans has proven himself to be more than a fourth-line player; he’s performing as a reliable third-line center. And players in that role expect to be compensated accordingly.

Currently earning $1.7 million annually, Evans is poised for a substantial pay increase, as our research recently provided supports. Projections suggest that his next deal could become a contentious point for the Canadiens, potentially forcing management into a difficult decision.

Evans, as mentioned, is having a career season so far.

Drawing Comparisons: Phillip Danault

To understand Evans’ potential impact and valuation, Canadiens fans don’t have to look far. The closest comparison is former Hab Phillip Danault, whose evolution and departure remain a cautionary tale. Like Evans, Danault was once undervalued as a defensive forward before solidifying his reputation as a dependable two-way center.

Danault’s final season in Montreal (2020–2021) came after a pandemic-shortened schedule and a stagnant salary cap of $81.5 million. That summer, he signed a six-year, $33 million deal with the Los Angeles Kings, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $5.5 million—6.75% of the cap.

Fast forward to today: With the salary cap set at $88 million and projected to rise to at least $92 million next season, a comparable percentage would translate to an AAV of approximately $6.21 million for Evans. If Evans’ career year leads to similar contract demands, and even considering that Danault had more success in his career than Evans, the Canadiens could face significant cap implications, far from the low-ball numbers being blindly thrown around.

A Risky Bet

The looming question is which version of Jake Evans the Canadiens will see moving forward. Will he maintain his current level of play, justifying a middle-six role and salary? Or will he regress to a fourth-line center, risking cap inefficiency and becoming difficult to trade?

This risk is amplified by the promising prospects waiting in the wings. Owen Beck and Oliver Kapanen are expected to challenge for NHL roles soon, potentially pushing Evans down the depth chart. If that happens, the Canadiens could be saddled with an overpaid fourth-liner, creating a cap liability.

A Career Year or a Mirage?

Evans is undeniably having a standout season, but history is littered with examples of players cashing in on career years only to fall short of expectations. For fans and media advocating for a long-term extension, the cautionary tale of overpaying based on short-term performance looms large.

Ultimately, the Canadiens must weigh the risks of committing significant cap space to Evans against the possibility of losing a valuable piece of their current lineup. As the debate rages on, one thing is certain: The Jake Evans contract discussion isn’t going away anytime soon.